Predicting COVID-19 epidemics in local authorities of the UK


By combining the use of artificial intelligence with vaccination data, localised mobility and Google search queries, we have built a simple prediction model that can predict how the number of COVID-19 cases will change in the immediate short term. The change is presented as a % change for the current week, compared to the previous week, and also predicts the change for the following two weeks.

Our model looks at two forms of COVID-19 case information available: by notification date- when cases were reported to the authorities; and also by specimen date (beta)- when the sample was collected from the patient.

Last Update: 2022-01-14
Reference Week: 2022-01-03




View the predicted percentage change in the number of COVID-19 cases week by week by moving the slider bar to the week of your choice. The percentage change predicted is a percentage figure comparing to the COVID-19 case levels for week beginning 2022-01-03

Use the search function on the right hand side to select a specific local UK authority.

This work was supported by the WellcomeTrust ITPA programme at the University of Edinburgh




View the predicted percentage change in the number of COVID-19 cases week by week by moving the slider bar to the week of your choice. The percentage change predicted is a percentage figure comparing to the COVID-19 case levels for week beginning 2022-01-03

Use the search function on the right hand side to select a specific local UK authority.

This work was supported by the WellcomeTrust ITPA programme at the University of Edinburgh